If you can’t identify an exit strategy, you can’t identify your market

Hypothesis: A product or service innovator can determine the best market opportunity, the optimal growth path, and/or an exit strategy…

Hypothesis: A product or service innovator can determine the best market opportunity, the optimal growth path, and/or an exit strategy before they build their product

To begin, this is one of those touchy subjects because everyone involved in this world is pretty smart, and has an opinion. Some are personally very successful — e.g. venture capitalists — and some believe they are going to be successful — e.g. founders. There is no arguing with them and I don’t intend to argue with them. Instead, I will just lay my thoughts down, and begin by reminding everyone of some basic facts that very few have demonstrated an ability to overcome.

Fact #1: 95% of new product or service launches fail in some form or fashion— elaborated by the following facts; especially the growth one

Fact # 2: Only 5% of companies are able to sustain a real, inflation-adjusted growth rate of more than 6%

Fact #3: 95% of companies reach a point where growth simply stalls to rates at or below the rate of growth of GNP

Fac…